Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | MAN +150 MSM -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MAN +1 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | MAN -6.3 (-5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.1 (+4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MAN -3.0 (-2.0) | 142.7 (+6.3) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MAN -2.4 (-1.4) | 142.9 (+6.1) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MAN -3.1 (-2.1) | 142.4 (+6.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MAN -4.1 (-3.1) | 142.9 (+6.1) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | MSM 72 – 65 MAN |
| Jan 25, 2025 | MAN 74 – 64 MSM |
| Jan 11, 2025 | MSM 75 – 66 MAN |
| Feb 9, 2024 | MSM 82 – 78 MAN |
| Mar 4, 2023 | MSM 74 – 69 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MAN | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-23 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 9-11 |
| Home | 3-10 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-12 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.7 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#273) | -5.6 (#275) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.20 (#87) | -2.54 (#335) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#151) | -2.98 (#315) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#77) | 0.334 (#348) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MAN | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 27.0% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 13.7% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.4% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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