Betting Lines
| Spread | MAN -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | MAN -120 MSM +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +5 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | MAN -2.3 (-7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.6 (+9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MAN -0.6 (-5.6) | 135.3 (+7.7) | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MAN -0.9 (-5.9) | 133.9 (+9.1) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MAN -1.2 (-6.2) | 137.1 (+5.9) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MAN -0.9 (-5.9) | 137.4 (+5.6) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | MSM 72 – 65 MAN |
| Jan 25, 2025 | MAN 74 – 64 MSM |
| Jan 11, 2025 | MSM 75 – 66 MAN |
| Feb 9, 2024 | MSM 82 – 78 MAN |
| Dec 2, 2023 | MAN 75 – 74 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MAN | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-18 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 8-12 |
| Home | 5-9 | 5-9 |
| Away | 6-7 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.6 | 63.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 67.9 |
| Massey | -7.3 (#296) | -6.0 (#275) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.13 (#280) | -1.35 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.84 (#306) | -1.69 (#298) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#258) | 0.445 (#289) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MAN | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 30.9 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 65.6% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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