Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference · Draddy Gymnasium · March 4, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread MAN -2.5 Away covered
O/U 133.5 Over
Money MAN -120 / MSM +125
Model Predictions
Spread Total MAN win
Actual MSM +5 143 Lost
Massey MAN -2.3 (-7.3)
Massey Totals 133.6 (+9.4)
Bradley-Terry 70%
Weighted B-T 64%
Efficiency Plus ML MAN -0.9 (-5.9) 133.9 (+9.1) 52%
Baseline Tuned ML MAN -1.2 (-6.2) 137.1 (+5.9) 56%
Baseline ML MAN -0.9 (-5.9) 137.4 (+5.6) 55%
Baseline Plus ML MAN -0.6 (-5.6) 135.3 (+7.7) 54%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 1, 2026 MSM 7265 MAN
Jan 25, 2025 MAN 7464 MSM
Jan 11, 2025 MSM 7566 MAN
Feb 9, 2024 MSM 8278 MAN
Dec 2, 2023 MAN 7574 MSM

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MAN MSM
Overall 12-18 13-20
Conference 10-10 8-12
Home 5-9 5-9
Away 6-7 7-10
Neutral 1-2 1-1
Last 5 3-2 3-2
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 66.6 63.8
Avg Pts Against 71.5 67.9
Massey -7.3 (#296) -6.0 (#275)
Bradley-Terry -1.13 (#280) -1.35 (#298)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.84 (#306) -1.69 (#298)
RPI 0.463 (#258) 0.445 (#289)
Shooting & Four Factors MAN MSM
FG% 43.6% 42.3%
3PT% 34.0% 36.2%
REB / G 30.9 32.7
OREB / G 8.8 9.1
AST / TO 0.90 0.91
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.7% 48.4%
TOV% 20.2% 20.7%
ORB% 26.3% 27.4%
FT Rate 21.9% 19.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.4% 49.3%
Opp TOV% 20.8% 18.5%
DRB% 65.6% 70.1%
Opp FT Rate 21.3% 22.3%

Game Analysis

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