Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Under |
| Money | FRES -150 AF +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AF +3 | 99 | Lost |
| Massey | FRES -2.3 (-5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.8 (-20.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -1.4 (-4.4) | 128.3 (-29.3) | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -2.5 (-5.5) | 126.6 (-27.6) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -1.2 (-4.2) | 129.8 (-30.8) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -1.1 (-4.1) | 128.6 (-29.6) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | FRES 93 – 63 AF |
| Jan 31, 2026 | FRES 79 – 62 AF |
| Feb 22, 2025 | AF 72 – 69 FRES |
| Jan 18, 2025 | FRES 74 – 65 AF |
| Feb 10, 2024 | FRES 68 – 66 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 5-13 |
| Home | 7-7 | 10-9 |
| Away | 4-9 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.5 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 67.1 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#175) | 1.5 (#145) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#206) | -0.01 (#181) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#200) | -0.03 (#183) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#196) | 0.478 (#218) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 30.9 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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