Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | AF +390 FRES -520 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +17 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | FRES -12.0 (-5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.9 (+11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -10.2 (-6.8) | 132.7 (+8.3) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -11.6 (-5.4) | 131.9 (+9.1) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -10.8 (-6.2) | 132.5 (+8.5) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -10.9 (-6.1) | 132.1 (+8.9) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | FRES 93 – 63 AF |
| Feb 22, 2025 | AF 72 – 69 FRES |
| Jan 18, 2025 | FRES 74 – 65 AF |
| Feb 10, 2024 | FRES 68 – 66 AF |
| Jan 28, 2024 | FRES 84 – 70 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-29 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 0-20 | 7-13 |
| Home | 3-15 | 10-7 |
| Away | 0-12 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L25 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.5 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.9 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -13.5 (#342) | 1.7 (#141) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.01 (#330) | -0.12 (#184) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.38 (#319) | 0.11 (#155) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#290) | 0.494 (#190) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 29.3 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 22.6% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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