Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | FRES -185 AF +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +9 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | FRES -3.8 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (-5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -3.0 (+6.0) | 138.9 (+0.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -2.6 (+6.4) | 139.2 (-0.2) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -2.6 (+6.4) | 140.0 (-1.0) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -2.6 (+6.4) | 138.0 (+1.0) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | FRES 93 – 63 AF |
| Jan 31, 2026 | FRES 79 – 62 AF |
| Feb 22, 2025 | AF 72 – 69 FRES |
| Feb 10, 2024 | FRES 68 – 66 AF |
| Jan 28, 2024 | FRES 84 – 70 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-26 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 1-19 |
| Home | 5-9 | 3-13 |
| Away | 1-14 | 0-14 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 61.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.7 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -6.6 (#276) | -6.7 (#277) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.39 (#295) | -2.27 (#336) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.79 (#300) | -2.49 (#321) |
| RPI | 0.441 (#282) | 0.395 (#338) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 28.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 6.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 21.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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