Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | FRES -1450 AF +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +30 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | FRES -19.0 (+11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.5 (+21.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -14.7 (+15.3) | 139.5 (+16.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -15.3 (+14.7) | 136.7 (+19.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -15.8 (+14.2) | 137.8 (+18.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -15.6 (+14.4) | 138.7 (+17.3) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | FRES 79 – 62 AF |
| Feb 22, 2025 | AF 72 – 69 FRES |
| Jan 18, 2025 | FRES 74 – 65 AF |
| Feb 10, 2024 | FRES 68 – 66 AF |
| Jan 28, 2024 | FRES 84 – 70 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 3-29 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 0-20 |
| Home | 10-7 | 3-15 |
| Away | 2-10 | 0-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L25 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 61.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 79.9 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#135) | -13.7 (#345) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#159) | -2.03 (#332) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#146) | -2.29 (#316) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#203) | 0.434 (#303) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 29.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 22.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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