Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | FRES -163 AF +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +14 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | FRES -1.1 (+12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.8 (+23.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -0.6 (+13.4) | 133.5 (+20.5) | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -0.4 (+13.6) | 131.6 (+22.4) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -1.0 (+13.0) | 134.4 (+19.6) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -0.7 (+13.3) | 135.4 (+18.6) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | FRES 93 – 63 AF |
| Jan 31, 2026 | FRES 79 – 62 AF |
| Feb 22, 2025 | AF 72 – 69 FRES |
| Jan 18, 2025 | FRES 74 – 65 AF |
| Feb 10, 2024 | FRES 68 – 66 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 2-16 |
| Home | 7-9 | 4-12 |
| Away | 3-9 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#233) | -1.2 (#191) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#220) | -0.59 (#235) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#224) | -0.40 (#206) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#210) | 0.461 (#251) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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