Betting Lines
| Spread | AF -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | AF -195 FRES +165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AF +3 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | AF -1.1 (+1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (-3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -0.8 (+3.8) | 142.5 (-1.5) | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -0.2 (+3.2) | 145.3 (-4.3) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -0.1 (+3.1) | 140.7 (+0.3) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -0.4 (+3.4) | 141.5 (-0.5) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | FRES 93 – 63 AF |
| Jan 31, 2026 | FRES 79 – 62 AF |
| Jan 18, 2025 | FRES 74 – 65 AF |
| Feb 10, 2024 | FRES 68 – 66 AF |
| Jan 28, 2024 | FRES 84 – 70 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-28 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 1-19 | 2-18 |
| Home | 3-13 | 5-9 |
| Away | 0-14 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.9 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 80.7 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#292) | -6.0 (#265) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.34 (#341) | -1.76 (#322) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.52 (#329) | -1.96 (#310) |
| RPI | 0.405 (#335) | 0.403 (#337) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 23.5% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 16.4% |
Game Analysis
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