Betting Lines
| Spread | AF -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | AF -120 FRES +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +2 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | AF -2.1 (-4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.1 (-0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AF -0.5 (-2.5) | 134.3 (-0.3) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AF -0.8 (-2.8) | 135.8 (-1.8) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AF -0.3 (-2.3) | 137.0 (-3.0) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AF -0.4 (-2.4) | 136.6 (-2.6) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | FRES 93 – 63 AF |
| Jan 31, 2026 | FRES 79 – 62 AF |
| Feb 22, 2025 | AF 72 – 69 FRES |
| Jan 18, 2025 | FRES 74 – 65 AF |
| Jan 28, 2024 | FRES 84 – 70 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 4-14 |
| Home | 4-12 | 7-9 |
| Away | 5-8 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#226) | -2.2 (#198) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#259) | -0.21 (#190) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#235) | -0.17 (#183) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#255) | 0.491 (#190) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 29.7 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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