Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Over |
| Money | SIU -600 ILST +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +12 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | SIU -12.0 (+0.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.0 (+6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -9.1 (+2.9) | 127.4 (-1.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -9.3 (+2.7) | 126.6 (-0.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -8.7 (+3.3) | 129.1 (-3.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -9.5 (+2.5) | 127.9 (-1.9) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | SIU 54 – 50 ILST |
| Dec 19, 2025 | ILST 75 – 68 SIU |
| Feb 26, 2025 | SIU 88 – 79 ILST |
| Jan 5, 2025 | ILST 85 – 54 SIU |
| Feb 11, 2024 | SIU 69 – 66 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 6-14 |
| Home | 13-2 | 8-7 |
| Away | 8-6 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.7 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#110) | -4.2 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.10 (#80) | -0.64 (#240) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#109) | -0.85 (#242) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#88) | 0.456 (#256) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.4 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 21.1% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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