Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | SIU +105 ILST -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +9 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | ILST -0.6 (+9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.8 (+20.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -0.4 (+8.6) | 144.7 (+22.3) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -0.5 (+8.5) | 143.1 (+23.9) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -0.1 (+8.9) | 146.2 (+20.8) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -0.2 (+9.2) | 145.9 (+21.1) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | SIU 54 – 50 ILST |
| Dec 19, 2025 | ILST 75 – 68 SIU |
| Jan 5, 2025 | ILST 85 – 54 SIU |
| Feb 11, 2024 | SIU 69 – 66 ILST |
| Jan 7, 2024 | SIU 71 – 64 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 10-10 |
| Home | 7-7 | 12-4 |
| Away | 5-8 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#191) | 2.1 (#126) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#199) | 0.56 (#125) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#190) | 0.56 (#127) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#176) | 0.523 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 57.2% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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