Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | SIU -125 ILST +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +7 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | ILST -0.2 (-6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.0 (-12.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -0.3 (-7.3) | 147.5 (-4.5) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -0.4 (-7.4) | 148.4 (-5.4) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -0.3 (-7.3) | 149.5 (-6.5) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -0.1 (-7.1) | 149.2 (-6.2) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | SIU 54 – 50 ILST |
| Feb 26, 2025 | SIU 88 – 79 ILST |
| Jan 5, 2025 | ILST 85 – 54 SIU |
| Feb 11, 2024 | SIU 69 – 66 ILST |
| Jan 7, 2024 | SIU 71 – 64 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 12-8 |
| Home | 8-6 | 14-2 |
| Away | 7-8 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#120) | 8.2 (#77) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#159) | 1.04 (#104) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#153) | 1.27 (#111) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#157) | 0.533 (#115) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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