Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | ILST -360 SIU +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +31 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | ILST -11.4 (+19.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (-9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -10.0 (+21.0) | 145.7 (-6.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILST -8.2 (+22.8) | 144.1 (-5.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -11.3 (+19.7) | 147.1 (-8.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -10.1 (+20.9) | 146.2 (-7.2) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | SIU 54 – 50 ILST |
| Dec 19, 2025 | ILST 75 – 68 SIU |
| Feb 26, 2025 | SIU 88 – 79 ILST |
| Feb 11, 2024 | SIU 69 – 66 ILST |
| Jan 7, 2024 | SIU 71 – 64 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 8-12 |
| Home | 12-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 5-7 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 75.5 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#127) | -5.5 (#262) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#144) | -1.29 (#284) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#139) | -1.53 (#274) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#145) | 0.461 (#241) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 39.1% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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