Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | ILST -440 SIU +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +4 | 104 | Lost |
| Massey | ILST -8.8 (-12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.2 (-39.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -8.5 (-12.5) | 138.7 (-34.7) | 79% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILST -9.7 (-13.7) | 140.7 (-36.7) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -9.4 (-13.4) | 140.9 (-36.9) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -8.2 (-12.2) | 139.7 (-35.7) | 79% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 19, 2025 | ILST 75 – 68 SIU |
| Feb 26, 2025 | SIU 88 – 79 ILST |
| Jan 5, 2025 | ILST 85 – 54 SIU |
| Feb 11, 2024 | SIU 69 – 66 ILST |
| Jan 7, 2024 | SIU 71 – 64 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 10-10 |
| Home | 14-2 | 8-6 |
| Away | 7-7 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 8.7 (#73) | 2.9 (#128) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#94) | -0.35 (#202) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#101) | -0.35 (#197) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#76) | 0.500 (#186) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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