Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | SIU -333 ILST +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +3 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | SIU -11.5 (-8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.0 (+9.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -9.6 (-6.6) | 131.6 (+3.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -10.0 (-7.0) | 131.2 (+3.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -9.9 (-6.9) | 132.6 (+2.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -9.8 (-6.8) | 130.9 (+4.1) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | SIU 54 – 50 ILST |
| Dec 19, 2025 | ILST 75 – 68 SIU |
| Feb 26, 2025 | SIU 88 – 79 ILST |
| Jan 5, 2025 | ILST 85 – 54 SIU |
| Jan 7, 2024 | SIU 71 – 64 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 9-11 |
| Home | 13-5 | 10-6 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 68.0 |
| Massey | 5.0 (#103) | -3.1 (#220) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#136) | -0.37 (#207) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.98 (#114) | -0.40 (#205) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#154) | 0.475 (#218) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 27.1% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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