Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | ILST +138 SIU -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +7 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | SIU -5.4 (-1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.2 (+7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -4.5 (-2.5) | 134.5 (+0.5) | 29% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | SIU -5.6 (-1.4) | 133.9 (+1.1) | 29% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | SIU -5.0 (-2.0) | 133.6 (+1.4) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -5.8 (-1.2) | 134.8 (+0.2) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | SIU 54 – 50 ILST |
| Dec 19, 2025 | ILST 75 – 68 SIU |
| Feb 26, 2025 | SIU 88 – 79 ILST |
| Jan 5, 2025 | ILST 85 – 54 SIU |
| Feb 11, 2024 | SIU 69 – 66 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 11-9 |
| Home | 10-6 | 13-5 |
| Away | 4-8 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 68.6 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#222) | 6.9 (#80) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#172) | 0.53 (#134) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#176) | 1.12 (#109) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#165) | 0.523 (#134) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 28.2% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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