Betting Lines
| Spread | USI -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | USI -163 UTM +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USI +14 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | USI -4.9 (+9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.6 (-14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USI -2.4 (+11.6) | 158.2 (-12.2) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USI -4.3 (+9.7) | 155.2 (-9.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USI -2.7 (+11.3) | 156.3 (-10.3) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USI -2.5 (+11.5) | 157.3 (-11.3) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | UTM 76 – 54 USI |
| Jan 11, 2026 | UTM 73 – 56 USI |
| Feb 28, 2025 | UTM 79 – 63 USI |
| Dec 21, 2024 | UTM 77 – 46 USI |
| Feb 16, 2024 | UTM 77 – 68 USI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USI | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-4 | 14-2 |
| Away | 5-11 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 77.1 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#250) | -5.6 (#264) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#252) | -0.76 (#253) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#251) | -1.22 (#271) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#268) | 0.452 (#264) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USI | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.8% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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