Betting Lines
| Spread | ECU -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Over |
| Money | ECU -125 USF +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +11 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | ECU -1.7 (-12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.3 (+15.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ECU -2.0 (-13.0) | 140.0 (+11.0) | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ECU -2.4 (-13.4) | 139.2 (+11.8) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ECU -1.8 (-12.8) | 138.8 (+12.2) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ECU -1.3 (-12.3) | 139.9 (+11.1) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | USF 82 – 71 ECU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | ECU 64 – 55 USF |
| Dec 31, 2024 | USF 75 – 69 ECU |
| Mar 15, 2024 | USF 81 – 59 ECU |
| Feb 1, 2024 | USF 71 – 60 ECU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-6 | 9-9 |
| Away | 2-9 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 72.0 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#204) | 0.8 (#159) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.02 (#183) | -0.95 (#272) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#160) | -0.76 (#230) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#215) | 0.465 (#238) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 29.3% |
Game Analysis
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