Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | USF -125 ECU +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +6 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | USF -2.4 (+3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.5 (-2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -0.4 (+5.6) | 144.5 (-0.5) | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -3.0 (+3.0) | 144.7 (-0.7) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -1.8 (+4.2) | 144.4 (-0.4) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -0.8 (+5.2) | 144.1 (-0.1) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | USF 82 – 71 ECU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | ECU 64 – 55 USF |
| Mar 15, 2024 | USF 81 – 59 ECU |
| Feb 1, 2024 | USF 71 – 60 ECU |
| Mar 9, 2023 | ECU 73 – 58 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 9-6 | 12-6 |
| Away | 2-10 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 73.9 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#225) | -1.6 (#190) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#230) | -0.82 (#249) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.43 (#269) | -1.14 (#247) |
| RPI | 0.459 (#255) | 0.460 (#254) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 27.0% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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