Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | USF -2400 ECU +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +11 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | USF -23.1 (-12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.5 (-10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -18.5 (-7.5) | 157.2 (-4.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -15.8 (-4.8) | 156.4 (-3.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -17.3 (-6.3) | 153.1 (-0.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -18.5 (-7.5) | 154.3 (-1.3) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 25, 2025 | ECU 64 – 55 USF |
| Dec 31, 2024 | USF 75 – 69 ECU |
| Mar 15, 2024 | USF 81 – 59 ECU |
| Feb 1, 2024 | USF 71 – 60 ECU |
| Mar 9, 2023 | ECU 73 – 58 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-9 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 6-12 |
| Home | 13-2 | 7-10 |
| Away | 9-3 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.8 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 77.7 |
| Massey | 10.3 (#56) | -9.3 (#308) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.25 (#81) | -1.43 (#290) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#74) | -2.03 (#300) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#54) | 0.465 (#240) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 26.6% |
| REB / G | 42.6 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 15.7 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 44.3% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 38.0% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 32.4% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.1% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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