South Florida
Bulls
58
–
73
FINAL
Neutral
Conference
American Athletic Conference
East Carolina
Pirates
Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | USF -165 ECU +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ECU +15 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | USF -3.0 (-18.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.8 (-7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -1.5 (-16.5) | 139.7 (-8.7) | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -1.3 (-16.3) | 138.4 (-7.4) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -1.6 (-16.6) | 139.6 (-8.6) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USF -2.0 (-17.0) | 138.9 (-7.9) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | USF 82 – 71 ECU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | ECU 64 – 55 USF |
| Dec 31, 2024 | USF 75 – 69 ECU |
| Mar 15, 2024 | USF 81 – 59 ECU |
| Feb 1, 2024 | USF 71 – 60 ECU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-9 | 10-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#147) | -1.8 (#207) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#202) | -0.15 (#188) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#166) | -0.06 (#177) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#219) | 0.473 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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