Betting Lines
| Spread | ECU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | ECU -215 USF +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ECU +9 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | ECU -5.2 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.5 (-27.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ECU -4.4 (+4.6) | 146.8 (-27.8) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ECU -3.3 (+5.7) | 145.6 (-26.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ECU -4.2 (+4.8) | 144.2 (-25.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ECU -4.1 (+4.9) | 145.1 (-26.1) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | USF 82 – 71 ECU |
| Dec 31, 2024 | USF 75 – 69 ECU |
| Mar 15, 2024 | USF 81 – 59 ECU |
| Feb 1, 2024 | USF 71 – 60 ECU |
| Mar 9, 2023 | ECU 73 – 58 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 6-12 |
| Home | 12-6 | 9-6 |
| Away | 4-6 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#166) | -2.0 (#200) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#189) | -0.51 (#223) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#201) | -0.74 (#224) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#191) | 0.470 (#230) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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