South Florida
Bulls
81
–
59
FINAL
Neutral
Conference
American Athletic Conference
East Carolina
Pirates
Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | USF -300 ECU +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +22 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | USF -7.3 (+14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.0 (+5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -7.2 (+14.8) | 138.6 (+1.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -5.0 (+17.0) | 138.7 (+1.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -8.1 (+13.9) | 137.8 (+2.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -8.0 (+14.0) | 138.4 (+1.6) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | USF 82 – 71 ECU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | ECU 64 – 55 USF |
| Dec 31, 2024 | USF 75 – 69 ECU |
| Feb 1, 2024 | USF 71 – 60 ECU |
| Mar 9, 2023 | ECU 73 – 58 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 7-11 |
| Home | 15-3 | 11-9 |
| Away | 8-4 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 70.6 |
| Massey | 6.3 (#91) | -1.0 (#177) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.65 (#55) | -0.27 (#201) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.76 (#73) | -0.24 (#191) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#34) | 0.474 (#235) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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