Betting Lines
| Spread | ECU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | ECU -115 USF -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +11 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | USF -0.9 (-10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.4 (-6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -0.2 (-10.8) | 137.3 (-6.3) | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ECU -0.4 (-11.4) | 137.2 (-6.2) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -1.6 (-9.4) | 136.3 (-5.3) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -0.9 (-10.1) | 137.0 (-6.0) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | USF 82 – 71 ECU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | ECU 64 – 55 USF |
| Dec 31, 2024 | USF 75 – 69 ECU |
| Mar 15, 2024 | USF 81 – 59 ECU |
| Mar 9, 2023 | ECU 73 – 58 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 16-2 |
| Home | 11-9 | 15-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#184) | 3.4 (#117) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#205) | 0.96 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#200) | 0.87 (#118) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#209) | 0.548 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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