Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Under |
| Money | XAV -160 MARQ +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +4 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -3.2 (+0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 170.6 (-14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -3.2 (+0.8) | 162.0 (-6.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -3.4 (+0.6) | 159.5 (-3.5) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -3.3 (+0.7) | 163.1 (-7.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -3.0 (+1.0) | 163.4 (-7.4) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | XAV 89 – 87 MARQ |
| Feb 14, 2026 | XAV 96 – 88 MARQ |
| Jan 8, 2026 | MARQ 66 – 65 XAV |
| Mar 13, 2025 | MARQ 89 – 87 XAV |
| Jan 18, 2025 | XAV 59 – 57 MARQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 29-7 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 17-3 |
| Home | 15-2 | 16-1 |
| Away | 7-4 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 79.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 13.1 (#18) | 13.9 (#13) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.67 (#15) | 2.44 (#20) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.52 (#12) | 3.41 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.623 (#16) | 0.598 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.0% | 50.2% |
| 3PT% | 40.9% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 1.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.2% | 57.3% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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