Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | XAV -130 MARQ +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +8 | 184 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -3.5 (+4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.5 (+25.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -3.9 (+4.1) | 156.0 (+28.0) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -4.3 (+3.7) | 157.0 (+27.0) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -4.2 (+3.8) | 150.6 (+33.4) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -4.0 (+4.0) | 151.5 (+32.5) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | XAV 89 – 87 MARQ |
| Jan 8, 2026 | MARQ 66 – 65 XAV |
| Mar 13, 2025 | MARQ 89 – 87 XAV |
| Jan 18, 2025 | XAV 59 – 57 MARQ |
| Dec 21, 2024 | MARQ 72 – 70 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 7-13 |
| Home | 12-6 | 10-7 |
| Away | 1-10 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.4 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 5.4 (#100) | 4.8 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.08 (#84) | 0.25 (#143) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.62 (#77) | 0.50 (#128) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#126) | 0.478 (#227) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.73 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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