Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | MARQ -650 XAV +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +2 | 116 | Lost |
| Massey | MARQ -10.1 (-12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (-36.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -10.3 (-12.3) | 148.5 (-32.5) | 81% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -10.1 (-12.1) | 147.7 (-31.7) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -9.9 (-11.9) | 148.3 (-32.3) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -10.2 (-12.2) | 147.7 (-31.7) | 82% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | XAV 89 – 87 MARQ |
| Feb 14, 2026 | XAV 96 – 88 MARQ |
| Jan 8, 2026 | MARQ 66 – 65 XAV |
| Mar 13, 2025 | MARQ 89 – 87 XAV |
| Dec 21, 2024 | MARQ 72 – 70 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 13-7 |
| Home | 14-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 7-6 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 78.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 17.7 (#16) | 11.3 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.82 (#8) | 1.16 (#79) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.98 (#7) | 1.90 (#68) |
| RPI | 0.671 (#6) | 0.541 (#100) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 39.3% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.67 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 12.7% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 31.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.4% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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