Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | MARQ -238 XAV +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +1 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | MARQ -2.3 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.3 (-28.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -0.0 (+1.0) | 149.2 (-18.2) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -2.4 (-1.4) | 149.2 (-18.2) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -0.2 (+1.2) | 147.4 (-16.4) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -0.9 (+1.9) | 147.4 (-16.4) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | XAV 89 – 87 MARQ |
| Feb 14, 2026 | XAV 96 – 88 MARQ |
| Mar 13, 2025 | MARQ 89 – 87 XAV |
| Jan 18, 2025 | XAV 59 – 57 MARQ |
| Dec 21, 2024 | MARQ 72 – 70 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 6-14 |
| Home | 10-7 | 12-6 |
| Away | 2-10 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 78.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 80.6 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#146) | 3.1 (#121) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.03 (#259) | 0.94 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.15 (#242) | 1.21 (#101) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#235) | 0.547 (#94) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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