Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | XAV +160 MARQ -195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +2 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | MARQ -4.0 (+2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.4 (-12.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -1.5 (-0.5) | 151.5 (-9.5) | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -1.9 (-0.1) | 145.9 (-3.9) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -1.0 (-1.0) | 150.8 (-8.8) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -1.1 (-0.9) | 150.7 (-8.7) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | XAV 89 – 87 MARQ |
| Feb 14, 2026 | XAV 96 – 88 MARQ |
| Jan 8, 2026 | MARQ 66 – 65 XAV |
| Mar 13, 2025 | MARQ 89 – 87 XAV |
| Jan 18, 2025 | XAV 59 – 57 MARQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 13-7 |
| Home | 15-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 5-7 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.1 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 9.6 (#61) | 17.7 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.17 (#85) | 3.43 (#9) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.87 (#78) | 5.09 (#8) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#119) | 0.666 (#10) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 40.7% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 1.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 13.1% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 23.2% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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