Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | XAV +125 MARQ -145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +2 | 176 | Lost |
| Massey | MARQ -3.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.1 (+28.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -2.0 (+0.0) | 143.9 (+32.1) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -3.2 (+1.2) | 144.8 (+31.2) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -1.9 (-0.1) | 144.3 (+31.7) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -2.1 (+0.1) | 143.0 (+33.0) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | XAV 89 – 87 MARQ |
| Feb 14, 2026 | XAV 96 – 88 MARQ |
| Jan 8, 2026 | MARQ 66 – 65 XAV |
| Jan 18, 2025 | XAV 59 – 57 MARQ |
| Dec 21, 2024 | MARQ 72 – 70 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 13-7 |
| Home | 15-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 5-7 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.1 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 12.9 (#41) | 16.4 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.89 (#51) | 2.41 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.53 (#49) | 3.22 (#32) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#59) | 0.599 (#26) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 1.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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