Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | MARQ -180 XAV +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +2 | 176 | Lost |
| Massey | MARQ -1.2 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.6 (+18.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -1.9 (-3.9) | 150.4 (+25.6) | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -1.8 (-3.8) | 149.5 (+26.5) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -1.5 (-3.5) | 148.1 (+27.9) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -2.0 (-4.0) | 149.2 (+26.8) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | XAV 96 – 88 MARQ |
| Jan 8, 2026 | MARQ 66 – 65 XAV |
| Mar 13, 2025 | MARQ 89 – 87 XAV |
| Jan 18, 2025 | XAV 59 – 57 MARQ |
| Dec 21, 2024 | MARQ 72 – 70 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 6-14 |
| Home | 10-7 | 12-6 |
| Away | 2-10 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 78.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 80.6 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#88) | 5.5 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#110) | 0.97 (#90) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#99) | 1.46 (#84) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#213) | 0.505 (#167) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 64.9% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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