Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | CONN -1400 SJU +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +11 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -17.0 (-28.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.2 (+5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -13.5 (-24.5) | 157.4 (+1.6) | 86% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -14.2 (-25.2) | 154.1 (+4.9) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -12.7 (-23.7) | 155.6 (+3.4) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -12.1 (-23.1) | 155.2 (+3.8) | 85% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | SJU 72 – 52 CONN |
| Feb 26, 2026 | CONN 72 – 40 SJU |
| Feb 7, 2026 | SJU 81 – 72 CONN |
| Feb 23, 2025 | SJU 89 – 75 CONN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | SJU 68 – 62 CONN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-8 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 7-13 |
| Home | 15-2 | 11-6 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.1 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 19.4 (#3) | 6.3 (#84) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.27 (#7) | 1.17 (#77) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.26 (#6) | 1.53 (#75) |
| RPI | 0.630 (#13) | 0.534 (#117) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 40.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.3% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.6% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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