Betting Lines
| Spread | RGV -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | RGV -250 CHST +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RGV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RGV +3 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | RGV -3.9 (-0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.7 (+13.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RGV -3.6 (-0.6) | 149.1 (+17.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RGV -3.6 (-0.6) | 148.9 (+18.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RGV -4.1 (-1.1) | 151.0 (+16.0) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RGV -3.7 (-0.7) | 149.6 (+17.4) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 19, 2023 | CHST 78 – 68 RGV |
| Jan 14, 2022 | RGV 85 – 63 CHST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RGV | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 0-0 |
| Home | 11-6 | 8-0 |
| Away | 4-10 | 3-20 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.2 | 74.3 |
| Massey | -6.3 (#276) | -6.3 (#275) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#226) | -1.75 (#322) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#224) | -1.92 (#308) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#183) | 0.415 (#315) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RGV | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 22.8% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 33.2% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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