Betting Lines
| Spread | RGV -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Under |
| Money | RGV -475 CHST +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RGV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RGV +22 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | RGV -10.3 (+11.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (-0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RGV -7.6 (+14.4) | 146.5 (+1.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RGV -7.2 (+14.8) | 147.0 (+1.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RGV -7.0 (+15.0) | 146.7 (+1.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RGV -7.4 (+14.6) | 146.8 (+1.2) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 19, 2023 | CHST 78 – 68 RGV |
| Jan 15, 2023 | RGV 85 – 82 CHST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RGV | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 3-15 |
| Home | 4-9 | 5-9 |
| Away | 3-12 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 62.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.7 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -6.1 (#270) | -12.5 (#336) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.22 (#279) | -1.63 (#300) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.44 (#269) | -2.25 (#306) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#214) | 0.431 (#290) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RGV | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 37.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 44.3% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 24.1% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 65.6% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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