Betting Lines
| Spread | CHST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Over |
| Money | CHST -190 RGV +158 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CHST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CHST +10 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | CHST -7.2 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (+4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CHST -4.4 (+5.6) | 140.7 (+5.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CHST -5.6 (+4.4) | 138.2 (+7.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CHST -6.1 (+3.9) | 139.2 (+6.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CHST -6.3 (+3.7) | 141.2 (+4.8) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2023 | RGV 85 – 82 CHST |
| Jan 14, 2022 | RGV 85 – 63 CHST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CHST | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 0-0 | 2-18 |
| Home | 6-5 | 5-9 |
| Away | 5-12 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L14 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 80.7 |
| Massey | -8.1 (#307) | -10.6 (#332) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.56 (#301) | -2.03 (#323) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.75 (#321) | -3.47 (#331) |
| RPI | 0.406 (#318) | 0.470 (#214) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CHST | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 26.2% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 43.4% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 32.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 62.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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