Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +6 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -6.9 (-0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.2 (+10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -6.4 (-0.4) | 130.6 (+1.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -5.7 (+0.3) | 129.2 (+2.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -5.9 (+0.1) | 130.5 (+1.5) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -5.8 (+0.2) | 131.3 (+0.7) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | AUB 79 – 61 MSST |
| Feb 19, 2026 | MSST 91 – 85 AUB |
| Jan 15, 2025 | AUB 88 – 66 MSST |
| Mar 16, 2024 | AUB 73 – 66 MSST |
| Mar 2, 2024 | AUB 78 – 63 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-2 | 12-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 61.0 |
| Massey | 11.7 (#27) | 8.8 (#62) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.25 (#28) | 1.87 (#41) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.73 (#27) | 2.12 (#53) |
| RPI | 0.638 (#8) | 0.578 (#52) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 36.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.5% | 44.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 24.5% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 16.3% |
Game Analysis
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