Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | MSST +195 AUB -238 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +6 | 176 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -6.1 (+12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.7 (+14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -5.5 (+11.5) | 157.5 (+18.5) | 34% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -3.9 (+9.9) | 157.8 (+18.2) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -3.8 (+9.8) | 154.0 (+22.0) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -2.9 (+8.9) | 154.5 (+21.5) | 34% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | AUB 79 – 61 MSST |
| Jan 15, 2025 | AUB 88 – 66 MSST |
| Mar 16, 2024 | AUB 73 – 66 MSST |
| Mar 2, 2024 | AUB 78 – 63 MSST |
| Jan 27, 2024 | MSST 64 – 58 AUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 22-16 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-8 | 14-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L6 | W5 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.6 | 83.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.8 | 78.8 |
| Massey | 6.4 (#92) | 15.4 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.11 (#83) | 2.38 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.75 (#73) | 3.48 (#27) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#111) | 0.601 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 38.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 34.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.9% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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