Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | AUB -340 MSST +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +22 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -13.3 (+8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.6 (-5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -13.0 (+9.0) | 155.3 (-1.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -11.0 (+11.0) | 149.9 (+4.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -13.9 (+8.1) | 155.0 (-1.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -13.1 (+8.9) | 155.1 (-1.1) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | AUB 79 – 61 MSST |
| Feb 19, 2026 | MSST 91 – 85 AUB |
| Mar 16, 2024 | AUB 73 – 66 MSST |
| Mar 2, 2024 | AUB 78 – 63 MSST |
| Jan 27, 2024 | MSST 64 – 58 AUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-6 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-2 | 10-5 |
| Away | 8-2 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 11-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.0 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 27.0 (#1) | 17.4 (#20) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.06 (#1) | 3.40 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.50 (#1) | 4.37 (#16) |
| RPI | 0.720 (#1) | 0.623 (#26) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.6% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 2.03 | 1.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.6% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.4% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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