Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | MSST +130 AUB -167 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +6 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -3.7 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (-21.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -1.7 (+7.7) | 146.1 (-24.1) | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -2.1 (+8.1) | 143.1 (-21.1) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -2.1 (+8.1) | 143.3 (-21.3) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -1.8 (+7.8) | 143.5 (-21.5) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | AUB 79 – 61 MSST |
| Feb 19, 2026 | MSST 91 – 85 AUB |
| Jan 15, 2025 | AUB 88 – 66 MSST |
| Mar 16, 2024 | AUB 73 – 66 MSST |
| Mar 2, 2024 | AUB 78 – 63 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-4 | 15-1 |
| Away | 2-8 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 83.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 11.3 (#42) | 18.7 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.86 (#48) | 2.62 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.66 (#33) | 3.38 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.586 (#48) | 0.629 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 43.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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