Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | AUB -360 MSST +285 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +18 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -9.1 (+8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.1 (-23.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -8.7 (+9.3) | 158.9 (-18.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -7.1 (+10.9) | 157.9 (-17.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -8.1 (+9.9) | 159.2 (-19.2) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -7.8 (+10.2) | 157.8 (-17.8) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | MSST 91 – 85 AUB |
| Jan 15, 2025 | AUB 88 – 66 MSST |
| Mar 16, 2024 | AUB 73 – 66 MSST |
| Mar 2, 2024 | AUB 78 – 63 MSST |
| Jan 27, 2024 | MSST 64 – 58 AUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-16 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 5-13 |
| Home | 14-4 | 8-8 |
| Away | 2-8 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | W5 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.0 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 81.8 |
| Massey | 14.0 (#42) | 4.9 (#103) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.97 (#47) | 0.89 (#98) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.80 (#42) | 1.46 (#85) |
| RPI | 0.574 (#50) | 0.503 (#176) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 38.0% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 34.0% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 12.9% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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