Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | AUB -350 MSST +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +7 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -7.9 (-0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (-5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -6.1 (+0.9) | 145.5 (-6.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -8.1 (-1.1) | 146.4 (-7.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -7.1 (-0.1) | 145.9 (-6.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -7.6 (-0.6) | 146.8 (-7.8) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | AUB 79 – 61 MSST |
| Feb 19, 2026 | MSST 91 – 85 AUB |
| Jan 15, 2025 | AUB 88 – 66 MSST |
| Mar 2, 2024 | AUB 78 – 63 MSST |
| Jan 27, 2024 | MSST 64 – 58 AUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-1 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.1 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 20.4 (#5) | 12.5 (#33) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.69 (#10) | 1.98 (#41) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.44 (#6) | 2.71 (#27) |
| RPI | 0.618 (#11) | 0.571 (#53) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.73 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.6% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.3% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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