Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | AUB -600 MSST +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +15 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -10.3 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (-3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -8.8 (+6.2) | 147.6 (-6.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -9.4 (+5.6) | 149.1 (-8.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -9.6 (+5.4) | 149.3 (-8.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -10.1 (+4.9) | 149.8 (-8.8) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | AUB 79 – 61 MSST |
| Feb 19, 2026 | MSST 91 – 85 AUB |
| Jan 15, 2025 | AUB 88 – 66 MSST |
| Mar 16, 2024 | AUB 73 – 66 MSST |
| Jan 27, 2024 | MSST 64 – 58 AUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-1 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.1 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 19.3 (#7) | 12.3 (#36) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.51 (#14) | 2.07 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.23 (#10) | 2.79 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.618 (#13) | 0.589 (#37) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 39.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.67 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.0% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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