Betting Lines
| O/U | 139.0 Under |
| Money | MOST -125 INST +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +2 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | MOST -1.8 (+0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.6 (-15.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -0.1 (+2.1) | 140.1 (-14.1) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -3.1 (-1.1) | 138.5 (-12.5) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -0.1 (+1.9) | 139.0 (-13.0) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -0.3 (+1.7) | 141.0 (-15.0) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2025 | INST 72 – 67 MOST |
| Dec 8, 2024 | INST 80 – 77 MOST |
| Mar 8, 2024 | INST 75 – 59 MOST |
| Feb 10, 2024 | INST 73 – 71 MOST |
| Jan 17, 2024 | INST 88 – 66 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 13-7 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-8 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.7 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#129) | 4.8 (#97) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#177) | 0.64 (#113) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#165) | 0.65 (#129) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#153) | 0.518 (#140) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 16.3% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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