I don't know why I let that mean woman make me a fool. "Whipping Post" - The Allman Brothers
Missouri Valley Conference · Great Southern Bank Arena · December 8, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread MOST -4.5 Away covered
O/U 148.5 Over
Money MOST -190 / INST +160
Model Predictions
Spread Total MOST win
Actual INST +3 157 Lost
Massey MOST -8.3 (-11.3)
Massey Totals 165.0 (-8.0)
Bradley-Terry 90%
Weighted B-T 97%
Baseline Plus ML MOST -6.5 (-9.5) 155.3 (+1.7) 73%
Efficiency Plus ML MOST -5.5 (-8.5) 155.9 (+1.1) 71%
Baseline Tuned ML MOST -5.0 (-8.0) 154.9 (+2.1) 74%
Baseline ML MOST -4.6 (-7.6) 154.4 (+2.6) 67%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 30, 2025 INST 7267 MOST
Mar 8, 2024 INST 7559 MOST
Feb 10, 2024 INST 7371 MOST
Jan 17, 2024 INST 8866 MOST
Feb 26, 2023 MOST 6662 INST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MOST INST
Overall 9-23 14-18
Conference 2-18 8-12
Home 7-8 8-6
Away 1-12 4-9
Neutral 1-3 2-3
Last 5 3-2 3-2
Streak L6 L1
Avg Pts For 67.5 79.0
Avg Pts Against 71.9 81.5
Massey -0.7 (#172) -4.5 (#247)
Bradley-Terry 0.28 (#151) -1.16 (#276)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.55 (#134) -1.95 (#285)
RPI 0.532 (#118) 0.388 (#331)
Shooting & Four Factors MOST INST
FG% 41.8% 47.6%
3PT% 38.9% 37.5%
REB / G 37.0 36.0
OREB / G 12.7 9.1
AST / TO 0.85 1.05
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.0% 57.5%
TOV% 19.3% 21.3%
ORB% 34.1% 26.5%
FT Rate 30.5% 22.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.1% 51.9%
Opp TOV% 20.6% 17.1%
DRB% 73.0% 72.4%
Opp FT Rate 30.8% 26.6%

Game Analysis

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