Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | MOST -190 INST +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +3 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | MOST -8.3 (-11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.0 (-8.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -5.5 (-8.5) | 155.9 (+1.1) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -5.0 (-8.0) | 154.9 (+2.1) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -4.6 (-7.6) | 154.4 (+2.6) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -6.5 (-9.5) | 155.3 (+1.7) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2025 | INST 72 – 67 MOST |
| Mar 8, 2024 | INST 75 – 59 MOST |
| Feb 10, 2024 | INST 73 – 71 MOST |
| Jan 17, 2024 | INST 88 – 66 MOST |
| Feb 26, 2023 | MOST 66 – 62 INST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 8-12 |
| Home | 7-8 | 8-6 |
| Away | 1-12 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 81.5 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#172) | -4.5 (#247) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#151) | -1.16 (#276) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#134) | -1.95 (#285) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#118) | 0.388 (#331) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 57.5% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.8% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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