Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | INST -800 MOST +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +16 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | INST -10.8 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.0 (-20.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -8.7 (+7.3) | 148.5 (-14.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -9.7 (+6.3) | 146.8 (-12.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -8.8 (+7.2) | 148.7 (-14.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -8.5 (+7.5) | 148.0 (-14.0) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2025 | INST 72 – 67 MOST |
| Dec 8, 2024 | INST 80 – 77 MOST |
| Feb 10, 2024 | INST 73 – 71 MOST |
| Jan 17, 2024 | INST 88 – 66 MOST |
| Feb 26, 2023 | MOST 66 – 62 INST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 8-12 |
| Home | 16-1 | 9-5 |
| Away | 9-4 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.7 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 12.1 (#39) | 1.3 (#149) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.21 (#26) | 0.34 (#140) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.50 (#32) | 0.46 (#140) |
| RPI | 0.586 (#40) | 0.506 (#162) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.3% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.4% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 39.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.8% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 13.1% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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