Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | INST -210 MOST +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +5 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | INST -3.2 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.2 (-20.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -4.6 (+0.4) | 146.1 (-7.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -1.9 (+3.1) | 149.1 (-10.1) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -2.5 (+2.5) | 151.4 (-12.4) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -0.4 (+4.6) | 149.1 (-10.1) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 8, 2024 | INST 80 – 77 MOST |
| Mar 8, 2024 | INST 75 – 59 MOST |
| Feb 10, 2024 | INST 73 – 71 MOST |
| Jan 17, 2024 | INST 88 – 66 MOST |
| Feb 26, 2023 | MOST 66 – 62 INST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 2-18 |
| Home | 8-6 | 7-8 |
| Away | 4-9 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.5 | 71.9 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#245) | -4.8 (#242) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#226) | -1.28 (#279) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#225) | -1.25 (#253) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#237) | 0.437 (#282) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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