We're only making plans for Nigel. "Making Plans for Nigel" - XTC
Missouri Valley Conference · Hulman Center · February 26, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread INST -7.5 Away covered
O/U 138.5 Under
Money INST -400 / MOST +280
Model Predictions
Spread Total INST win
Actual MOST +4 128 Lost
Massey INST -9.0 (-13.0)
Massey Totals 138.8 (-10.8)
Bradley-Terry 72%
Weighted B-T 77%
Baseline Plus ML INST -7.1 (-11.1) 137.6 (-9.6) 76%
Efficiency Plus ML INST -5.0 (-9.0) 138.4 (-10.4) 73%
Baseline Tuned ML INST -8.5 (-12.5) 139.2 (-11.2) 80%
Baseline ML INST -7.7 (-11.7) 140.6 (-12.6) 79%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 30, 2025 INST 7267 MOST
Dec 8, 2024 INST 8077 MOST
Mar 8, 2024 INST 7559 MOST
Feb 10, 2024 INST 7371 MOST
Jan 17, 2024 INST 8866 MOST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings INST MOST
Overall 23-13 17-15
Conference 13-7 12-8
Home 11-4 10-4
Away 7-6 5-8
Neutral 5-3 2-3
Last 5 4-1 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 78.6 65.0
Avg Pts Against 69.7 63.7
Massey 6.2 (#88) 0.8 (#156)
Bradley-Terry 0.45 (#132) 0.14 (#156)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.55 (#127) 0.05 (#169)
RPI 0.529 (#121) 0.525 (#132)
Shooting & Four Factors INST MOST
FG% 48.0% 43.0%
3PT% 35.1% 33.1%
REB / G 34.1 34.6
OREB / G 6.9 11.2
AST / TO 1.28 0.94
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 56.2% 50.2%
TOV% 17.0% 19.3%
ORB% 22.0% 32.9%
FT Rate 24.4% 17.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.9% 49.8%
Opp TOV% 18.2% 18.9%
DRB% 77.1% 73.0%
Opp FT Rate 23.8% 21.6%

Game Analysis

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