Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | INST -400 MOST +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +4 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | INST -9.0 (-13.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.8 (-10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -5.0 (-9.0) | 138.4 (-10.4) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -8.5 (-12.5) | 139.2 (-11.2) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | INST -7.7 (-11.7) | 140.6 (-12.6) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -7.1 (-11.1) | 137.6 (-9.6) | 76% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2025 | INST 72 – 67 MOST |
| Dec 8, 2024 | INST 80 – 77 MOST |
| Mar 8, 2024 | INST 75 – 59 MOST |
| Feb 10, 2024 | INST 73 – 71 MOST |
| Jan 17, 2024 | INST 88 – 66 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 12-8 |
| Home | 11-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 7-6 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 63.7 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#88) | 0.8 (#156) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#132) | 0.14 (#156) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#127) | 0.05 (#169) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#121) | 0.525 (#132) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 6.9 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 22.0% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 77.1% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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