Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | MOST +225 INST -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +2 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | INST -9.2 (+7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.6 (-11.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -7.9 (+5.9) | 152.8 (-8.8) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -6.9 (+4.9) | 151.7 (-7.7) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -7.2 (+5.2) | 153.1 (-9.1) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -7.1 (+5.1) | 154.3 (-10.3) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2025 | INST 72 – 67 MOST |
| Dec 8, 2024 | INST 80 – 77 MOST |
| Mar 8, 2024 | INST 75 – 59 MOST |
| Jan 17, 2024 | INST 88 – 66 MOST |
| Feb 26, 2023 | MOST 66 – 62 INST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 32-7 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 17-3 |
| Home | 9-5 | 16-1 |
| Away | 4-10 | 9-4 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 84.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#146) | 13.9 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#128) | 2.66 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#132) | 3.02 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#134) | 0.604 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 50.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 39.8% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 60.8% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.