Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.0 Under |
| Money | INST -900 MOST +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +22 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | INST -15.9 (+6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.4 (+1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -12.6 (+9.4) | 151.9 (+2.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -12.0 (+10.0) | 148.9 (+5.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -12.9 (+9.1) | 148.3 (+5.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -13.0 (+9.0) | 151.6 (+2.4) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2025 | INST 72 – 67 MOST |
| Dec 8, 2024 | INST 80 – 77 MOST |
| Mar 8, 2024 | INST 75 – 59 MOST |
| Feb 10, 2024 | INST 73 – 71 MOST |
| Feb 26, 2023 | MOST 66 – 62 INST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 8-12 |
| Home | 16-1 | 9-5 |
| Away | 9-4 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.7 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 13.1 (#28) | 1.1 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.23 (#28) | 0.14 (#163) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.68 (#35) | 0.28 (#158) |
| RPI | 0.602 (#32) | 0.501 (#170) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.8% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 41.3% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 6.9 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.1% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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