Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | LONG -700 UPST +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +7 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | LONG -14.4 (-7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.0 (+1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -11.2 (-4.2) | 138.9 (-1.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -12.5 (-5.5) | 138.8 (-1.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -10.4 (-3.4) | 137.6 (-0.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -10.9 (-3.9) | 138.3 (-1.3) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | LONG 82 – 75 UPST |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UPST 65 – 60 LONG |
| Mar 1, 2025 | LONG 83 – 66 UPST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | LONG 80 – 54 UPST |
| Feb 8, 2024 | UPST 69 – 64 LONG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-3 | 11-2 |
| Away | 8-8 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 3.2 (#120) | -7.2 (#298) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#168) | -0.44 (#219) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#167) | -0.90 (#243) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#166) | 0.466 (#237) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 29.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 62.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 30.1% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.